The latest East End market report by Douglas Elliman is a “can you top this” example of incompetence.
Want to see the Douglas Elliman 1st Qtr 2011 Market Report?
Get it [HERE]
To start with, the Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel report says there were 379 properties sold on the East End in the 1st Quarter. They missed 88 sales; they just didn’t record them, and therefore, all the market statistics, which are derived from the sales — HAVE TO BE WRONG! Check our public website, www.eastendlistings.com. We show 467 transfers of single family homes taken from Suffolk County records — which ones does Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel believe do not count?
Get a list of all 467 transfers [HERE]
How Could Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel be that far off???
Neither Miller Samuel nor Douglas Elliman collects the raw data themselves. They buy the data from Long Island Real Estate Report [HERE]. Even though the report from Elliman says there were 379 sales, and they say they get their data from Long Island Real Estate Report, the Long Island Real Estate Report website shows only 318 sales for the 1st quarter of 2011 (Southampton 131, Riverhead 42, East Hampton 94, Shelter Island 11, and Southold 40). The Long Island Real Estate Report was wrong, under-counting by 149 property transfers.
Note: On 4/22/11 I reported (on The Real Deal website) the problem of faulty data from Douglas Elliman and Long Island Real Estate Report. The next day, Long Isla
nd Real Estate Report [HERE] changed the numbers from those in the previous paragraph to: Southampton 151 from 131, Riverhead 45 from 42, East Hampton 100 from 94, Shelter Island 12 from 11, and Southold 43 from 40.
Now the Long Island Real Estate Report Shows a total of 351 records in the five towns, still 28 less than shown by Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel and 116 fewer properties than reported by Suffolk Research Service, Inc. from Suffolk County records.
How do we know that we are right and the Long Island Real Estate Report and Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel are wrong? You can count them yourself. We publish each property transfer on www.eastendcomps.com [HERE] and [HERE]. I ask Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel the question:
Which 88 of the 467 transfers on www.eastendcomps.com [HERE] and [HERE] do you say were not sold?
What we do, and what our competitor, The Long Island Real Estate Report does, to collect the data, is not rocket science. We go to the county center and record the transfer information from deeds on the County’s computer into our computer. Then we proof the data and run it through computer programs to process the data.
Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel shows data for the 1st qtr of 2011 compared with the previous quarter and the 1st qtr 2010 in the chart above. Turns out, the data reporting of The Long Island Real Estate Report (and therefore Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel) was off less in those quarters (Elliman missed 8 sales in 4th qtr 2010 and missed 62 sales in the 1st qtr 2010).
These Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel numbers show a decrease in sales from 4th qtr 2010 to 1st qtr 2011 of 29.6% and a decrease from 1st qtr 2010 to 1st qtr 2011 of 22.0%, because of the large under-counting (they missed 88 transfers) in 1st qtr 2010. The actual decrease to 467 sales was 14.4% — quarter to quarter, as reported by Suffolk Research Service, Inc. from Suffolk County records.
It is this Douglas Elliman inaccurate and incompetent report of a 29.6% drop in sales units (when it is actually 14.4%) that caused the “The Sky is falling” report to be published in The Real Deal [HERE] on April 22, 2011.
About the Douglas Elliman 1st Qtr 2011 Market Report, The Real Deal said: [HERE]
“The East End residential real estate market completely collapsed in the first quarter of 2011, according to a Prudential Douglas Elliman market report released today, but the report’s preparer said the numbers were an anomaly created by fear surrounding the possible expiration of the so-called “Bush tax cuts” this past December. (President Barack Obama eventually extended the cuts for two years in late December.)
“Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel and the compiler of the report, said that buyers who feared Bush tax cuts would expire in 2010 moved early on their East End purchases, thereby inflating last quarter’s sales numbers and depressing statistics for the first three months of this year. The combination set the first-quarter report up for drastic declines.”
We don’t believe Jonathan Miller’s theory on Bush tax cuts expiration’s affecting the market. Miller’s statement about Bush tax cuts, like his market report is BALONEY. The problem was not in the market’s decline, it was in the inaccurate and incompetent report on the market published by Douglas Elliman, due to chronically inaccurate data provided by the Long Island Real Estate Report.
The Long Island Real Estate Report business is simply managed poorly; they are very sloppy, skipping over and not including deeds that were recorded at the County offices.
To make the situation worse, at least three agencies other than Douglas Elliman use The Long Island Real Estate Report for their data supplier, and therefore, the reports produced by these companies are inaccurate and often virtually useless (Town and Country, Corcoran, and Brown Harris Stevens).
Douglas Elliman Report that High End sales had dropped is WRONG!
Miller Samuel says:
“First quarter of 2011 saw less high end activity. There were 15 sales that sold at or above
$5,000,000 in the first quarter compared to 24 sales in the prior year quarter …”
The real data (our Suffolk Research Service, Inc. data) shows that this is not true. See the table to the right. The “high end” is not hurting; it is doing fine. We show 28 total sales over $5M, including 24 residential/home sales. Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel doesn’t define what their data includes. Whichever way you look at the figures, there isn’t a statistically significant 1st qtr 2011 decline at the high end of the market on the East End.
The Douglas Elliman “high end” figure of 15 sales is dead wrong. They report a big decline at the high end which is not happening.
The Miller Samuel figures of “days on the market” is very deceiving and virtually useless. “Days on the Market” in all other markets (MLS LIBOR for instance) means “Days on the Market” — the days the property has been on the market. The Elliman/Miller Samuel “Days on the Market” refers to how many days since the last price change on the property. Average days on the market for Hamptons property is 900 days or more, when the contrived Elliman figure shows much less than that (167), I believe on purpose to mislead their buyers and sellers.
And the “days on the market” figure pertains only to Douglas Elliman listings, not all properties in the market. There is no way to check these internal Douglas Elliman figures, and I for one would not trust Douglas Elliman. Likewise, the Miller Samuel “Listing Discount”, “Listing Inventory”, and “Absorption Rate” are Douglas Elliman only figures, not the entire market. There is no proof that these numbers are representative of the Market, or that they can be believed.
I ask the question. Even if that information could be trusted, who needs it?
The entire Douglas Elliman/Miller Samuel report is poorly sourced (does it include Riverhead or Shelter Island — if Shelter Island is included, is it in the “Hamptons” or the “North Fork”?). The report does not identify whether the properties covered are homes only, or include other types of properties. The preparation and presentation of the report is dishonest and amateurish.
The report contains many graphs (8) and tables (11) with all sorts of comparisons and ratios. I’m in the business and find them useless — just fluff.
Market reports are statistical in nature, and should be prepared by a statistician or engineer. This report looks like it was prepared by a salesman bullshitter.
I emailed [HERE] Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel with some of my concerns with his report. I wasn’t at all satisfied with his response [HERE], and an analysis of the numbers show that he was being disingenuous [HERE].
He claims that because his data comes from:
“…more than just LI Real Estate Report, such comparisons are not applicable”.
This is total BALONEY, and Jonathon Miller knows it. There is only one data source. That source is the Suffolk County Clerk’s records, and comparisons are applicable. If each of us collected data 100% accurately, they would all be the same.
The Douglas Elliman report is wrong, WAY WRONG.
Some five years ago, Douglas Elliman Marketing VP (called “Prudential Long Island Realty” in those days) did a terrible job of preparing a market report.
I emailed Dottie Herman saying.
” I would think that you would have a Marketing VP who knew something about Marketing”
– The VP of Marketing was gone from the company in a few weeks.
See the Suffolk Research Service, Inc. 1st qtr report [HERE]
Posted on April 22nd, 2011 by admin
Filed under: Prudential, The Market
You obviously have no idea of how and what the Long Island Real Estate Report reports.
We cover every sale on Long Island and report on them every week.
We also update our statistics every week to show the up to the minute quarterly, monthly and weekly totals, and certainly not because we read an unfounded rant on the internet.
Companies like Prudential, Brown Harris Stevens, Corcoran and Town & Country have chosen our data because of our accuracy, consistency and breadth. They took the time to study the management and methods of our organization, unlike you, who just makes statements without facts.
How could you know if our company is poorly managed or not?
We have never attacked your numbers, although I believe them to be grossly incorrect, but we intend to study them more closely and report to our findings to our subscribers.
Pat Ammirati
President
The Long Island Real Estate Report
My post (and other things I have written) accuse you and your company of under reporting transfers on the East End of Long Island. I point out that Douglas Elliman reports real estate sales of 379 and you reported 318 – changed to 351 yesterday. You are still 28 less than the numbers reported by Douglas Elliman and 116 fewer properties than we report – and publish on the website http://www.eastendcomps.com.
I challenge you and Douglas Elliman to tell me which of the 467 home transfers on http://www.eastendcomps.com should be omitted.
Saying you are accurate doesn’t do it. If you under-count, you must defend your numbers with actual reasons – based upon my detailed transfers on http://www.eastendlistings.com.
I say your company is poorly managed because I see the results. Your reports skip over such a big number of deeds that were recorded at the county.
Certainly your customers should be able to see the results as well.
Here is a link to a list of all 467 Property Code 210 transfers we recorded. Which ones don’t represent legit sales? http://eastendlistings.com/1st qtr 2011 210.pdf
George R. Simpson
I suppose if you really wanted me to see your detailed listing, you would have given me a link that works.
The link works — ask some computer guy — or an 11 year old boy to help you.
Just my three cents as a Hampton realtor who is also a statistician.
I use PDE tools as an agent. “LI Real Estate Reports” are made available every Friday. I look forward to the “counts” and study the sales in each East End hamlet. I also look forward to the quarterly PDE Miller research reports. They are well-written, feature summaries are highly-accessible, graphics which are clear and consistent. These summary reports always find their way into my DE pitch pack.
As a statistician, sociologist, demographer and market research professonal, I find all of this inconsequential in the overall cosmology of things.
This polemic deals with publications, timing of information gathering, QA, etc., all of which could be resolved by hiring an independent outside or a dedicated Civil Servant to regulate “equal access” of recorded transfers to all competing interests, standardize data gathering and .pdf publication periodicities etc. That would level the playing field.
I also use the PDE/OREX tools to evaluate and analyze sales, O&As, contracts, etc. by hamlet This access allows for “forward” looking explication.
My customers and clients alike trust that I can interpret trends etc. in sales, pricing, comparables, lifestyles with confidence. I developed my own multivariate elaboration and predictive pricing algorithms that overlay GIS data against propinquity centroids starting with Oceanfront and working to the “highways”. One of my listings was in contract at the list price in 36 hours, priced correctly and providing my client with a $1M return on his investment.
No one looking for properties in the GWB footprint really cares too much about NF trends or East and West of the canal anyway. If they have targeted you as an agent, it’s because you are an expert in that neighborhood Data and trends taking place place in the immediate neighborhood(s) are paramount consumer/client-centric concerns.
For my wish list, I’d like to see a fully SQL addressible GUI that would export to spreadsheet or SPSS.
“Just my three cents as a Hampton realtor who is also a statistician.”
“I use PDE tools as an agent. “LI Real Estate Reports” are made available every Friday. I look forward to the “counts” and study the sales in each East End hamlet. I also look forward to the quarterly PDE Miller research reports. They are well-written, feature summaries are highly-accessible, graphics which are clear and consistent. These summary reports always find their way into my DE pitch pack.”
“As a statistician, sociologist, demographer and market research professonal, I find all of this inconsequential in the overall cosmology of things.”
“This polemic deals with publications, timing of information gathering, QA, etc., all of which could be resolved by hiring an independent outside or a dedicated Civil Servant to regulate “equal access” of recorded transfers to all competing interests, standardize data gathering and .pdf publication periodicities etc. That would level the playing field.”
“I also use the PDE/OREX tools to evaluate and analyze sales, O&As, contracts, etc. by hamlet This access allows for “forward” looking explication.”
“My customers and clients alike trust that I can interpret trends etc. in sales, pricing, comparables, lifestyles with confidence. I developed my own multivariate elaboration and predictive pricing algorithms that overlay GIS data against propinquity centroids starting with Oceanfront and working to the “highways”. One of my listings was in contract at the list price in 36 hours, priced correctly and providing my client with a $1M return on his investment.”
“No one looking for properties in the GWB footprint really cares too much about NF trends or East and West of the canal anyway. If they have targeted you as an agent, it’s because you are an expert in that neighborhood Data and trends taking place place in the immediate neighborhood(s) are paramount consumer/client-centric concerns.”
“For my wish list, I’d like to see a fully SQL addressible GUI that would export to spreadsheet or SPSS.”
The Reale Estate researched the Suffolk Research listing for the 1st Quarter of 2011.
The company challenged us to tell them which items did not represent legit sales.
Although none of the 467 items on the list are not legit (other than sloppy addresses), 154 of them represented closings that took place before the First quarter.
The data that The Real Estate Report provides to subscribers includes closing date as well as recorded date, plus 12 different flags concerning the property type and sale type. The subscribers can use this information to decide what they will include in their reports.
The Real Estate Report provided data on 634 deed transfers recorded in the 1st Quarter of 2011, several of these met the criteria for the Suffolk Research list, but they were not included.
If anyone is missing sales, it is Suffolk Research.
The Real Estate Report web site sales statistics are based purely on closing date, that is the reason that a large percentage of 1st quarter sales will not show up until mid-way into the second quarter.
We believe that true statistics concerning sales should be based on the actual date of closing. That is our opinion and that is how we create our stastical pages.
We feel that the length of time it takes for the recording, has no meaning in reporting on market activity.
The Real Estate researched the Suffolk Research listing for the 1st Quarter of 2011.
The company challenged us to tell them which items did not represent legit sales.
Although none of the 467 items on the list are not legit (other than sloppy addresses), 154 of them represented closings that took place before the First quarter.
The data that The Real Estate Report provides to subscribers includes closing date as well as recorded date, plus 12 different flags concerning the property type and sale type. The subscribers can use this information to decide what they will include in their reports.
The Real Estate Report provided data on 634 deed transfers recorded in the 1st Quarter of 2011, several of these met the criteria for the Suffolk Research list, but they were not included.
If anyone is missing sales, it is Suffolk Research.
The Real Estate Report web site sales statistics are based purely on closing date, that is the reason that a large percentage of 1st quarter sales will not show up until mid-way into the second quarter.
If you “provided data on 634 deed transfers recorded in the 1st Quarter of 2011″, I am an elephant. There were not 634 transfers in the 5 East End Towns during 1st Qtr of 2011.
We believe that true statistics concerning sales should be based on the actual date of closing. That is our opinion and that is how we create our statistical pages.
We feel that the length of time it takes for the recording, has no meaning in reporting on market activity.
This will be my final comment on this post.
It is impossible to communicate with someone whose switch is in transmit only.
And, by the way, you must be an elephant.
Below are the recordings for each day of the first quarter.
Go to Riverhead and count them, you may find the holes in your procedures.
01/03/11 11
01/04/11 30
01/05/11 12
01/06/11 22
01/07/11 20
01/10/11 9
01/11/11 14
01/13/11 13
01/14/11 13
01/18/11 14
01/19/11 16
01/20/11 16
01/21/11 11
01/24/11 3
01/25/11 10
01/26/11 14
01/27/11 1
01/28/11 4
01/31/11 20
02/01/11 4
02/02/11 9
02/03/11 13
02/04/11 9
02/07/11 15
02/08/11 6
02/09/11 11
02/10/11 9
02/14/11 16
02/15/11 7
02/16/11 5
02/17/11 16
02/18/11 2
02/22/11 11
02/23/11 4
02/24/11 15
02/25/11 6
02/28/11 15
03/01/11 4
03/02/11 13
03/03/11 5
03/04/11 9
03/07/11 16
03/08/11 9
03/09/11 13
03/10/11 6
03/11/11 9
03/14/11 14
03/15/11 4
03/16/11 11
03/17/11 8
03/18/11 13
03/21/11 5
03/22/11 8
03/23/11 7
03/24/11 9
03/25/11 14
03/28/11 7
03/29/11 10
03/30/11 6
03/31/11 8
Total 634
This will be my final comment on this post.
It is impossible to communicate with someone whose switch is in transmit only.
And, by the way, you must be an elephant.
Below are the recordings for each day of the first quarter.
Go to Riverhead and count them, you may find the holes in your procedures.
[...] report by Town and Country Real Estate, like the recent 2011 1st Qtr report from Douglas Elliman [HERE], is also full of under-counting errors, probably at least partially due to the use of “The [...]
[...] Prudential Douglas Elliman[HERE] [...]